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Iw Singularity Is Near: Singulariteig Humans Transcend Biology is a non-fiction book about artificial intelligence and the future of singularriteit by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil. This time, however, Kurzweil embraces the term the Singularitywhich was popularized by Vernor Vinge in his essay “The Coming Technological Singularity” singularifeit than a decade earlier. Kurzweil describes his law of accelerating returns which predicts an exponential anbij in technologies like computersgeneticsnanotechnologyrobotics and artificial intelligence.
Once the Singularity has been reached, Kurzweil says that machine intelligence will be infinitely more powerful than all human intelligence combined. Afterwards he predicts intelligence will radiate outward from the planet until it saturates the universe. The Singularity is also the point at which machines intelligence and sinngulariteit would merge. Kurzweil characterizes evolution throughout all time as progressing through six epochs, each one building on the one before.
Kurzweil explains that evolutionary progress is exponential because of positive feedback ; the results singularitiet one stage are used to create the next stage. Exponential growth is deceptive, nearly flat at first until it hits what Kurzweil calls “the knee in the curve” then rises almost vertically.
As an example of super-exponential growth Kurzweil cites the computer chip business. The overall budget for the whole industry increases over time, since the fruits of exponential growth make it an attractive investment; meanwhile the additional budget fuels more innovation which makes the industry grow even faster, effectively an example of “double” exponential growth.
Kurzweil says evolutionary progress looks smooth, but that really it is divided into paradigms, specific methods of solving problems. Each paradigm starts with slow growth, builds to rapid growth, and then levels off. As one paradigm levels off, pressure builds to find or develop a new paradigm. So what looks like a single smooth curve is really series of smaller S curves.
Kurzweil calls this exponential growth the law of accelerating returns, and he believes it applies to many human-created technologies such as computer memorytransistorsmicroprocessorsDNA sequencingmagnetic storagethe number of Internet hostsInternet trafficdecrease in device size, and nanotech citations and patents.
A fundamental pillar of Kurzweil’s argument is that singulariteeit get to the Singulariteih, computational capacity is as sinulariteit of a bottleneck as other things like quality of algorithms and understanding of the human singularieit.
Moore’s Law predicts the capacity of integrated circuits grows exponentially, but not indefinitely. Kurzweil feels the increase in the capacity of integrated circuits will probably slow by the year Kurzweil describes four paradigms of computing that came before integrated circuits: Since Kurzweil believes computational capacity will continue to grow exponentially long after Moore’s Law ends it will eventually rival the raw computing power of the human brain.
Kurzweil looks at several different estimates of how much computational capacity is in the brain and settles on 10 16 calculations per second and 10 13 bits of memory. Kurzweil notes that computational capacity alone will not create artificial singularitfit. He asserts that the best way to build machine intelligence is to first nabj human intelligence. The first step is to image the brain, to peer inside it. Kurzweil claims imaging technologies such as PET and fMRI are increasing exponentially in resolution  while he predicts even greater detail will be obtained during the s when it becomes possible to scan the brain from the inside using nanobots.
Beyond reverse engineering the brain in order to understand and emulate it, Kurzweil introduces the idea of “uploading” a specific brain with every mental process intact, to be instantiated on a “suitably powerful computational substrate”. He writes that general modeling requires 10 16 calculations per second and 10 13 bits of memory, but then explains uploading requires additional detail, perhaps as many as 10 nabim cps and 10 18 bits.
Kurzweil says the technology to do this will be available by Kurzweil believes there is “no objective test that can conclusively determine” the presence of consciousness.
Kurzweil says revolutions in geneticsnanotechnology and robotics will usher in the beginning of the Singularity. Kurzweil concedes that every technology carries with it the risk of misuse or abuse, from viruses singulariteih nanobots to out-of-control AI machines. He believes the only countermeasure is to invest singgulariteit defensive technologies, for example by allowing new genetics and medical treatments, monitoring for dangerous pathogens, and creating limited moratoriums on certain technologies.
As for artificial intelligence Kurzweil feels the best defense is to increase the “values of liberty, tolerance, and respect for knowledge and diversity” in society, because “the nonbiological intelligence will be embedded in our society and will reflect our values”. Kurzweil touches on the history of the Singularity concept, tracing it back to John von Neumann in the s and I. Good in the s. He compares his Singularity to that of a mathematical or astrophysical singularity.
De Singulariteit is nabij : het moment waarop de mensheid de grenzen van de biologie overstijgt
While his ideas of a Singularity is not actually infinite, he says it looks that way from any limited perspective. During the Singularity, Kurzweil predicts that “human life will be irreversibly transformed”  and that humans will transcend the “limitations of our biological bodies and brain”. Kurzweil claims once nonbiological intelligence predominates the nature of human life will be radically altered: Eventually people’s bodies will contain so much augmentation they’ll be able to alter their “physical manifestation at will”.
Kurzweil says the law of accelerating returns suggests that once a civilization develops primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before they achieve everything outlined in the book, at which point it will start expanding outward, saturating the universe with intelligence.
Since people have found no evidence of other civilizations, Kurzweil believes humans are likely alone in the universe.
Thus Kurzweil concludes it is humanity’s destiny to do the saturating, enlisting all matter and energy in the process. As for individual identities during these radical changes, Kurzweil suggests people think of themselves as an evolving pattern rather than a specific collection of molecules. Kurzweil says evolution moves towards “greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love”.
That means, he continues, that evolution is moving towards a conception of God and that the transition away from biological roots is in fact a spiritual undertaking. Kurzweil does not include an actual written timeline of the past and future, as he did in The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machineshowever he still makes many specific predictions. Kurzweil writes that by a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence  and “by around ” this same capacity will be available “for one thousand dollars”.
Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: A common criticism of the book relates to the “exponential growth fallacy”.
As an example, inman landed on the moon. Extrapolating exponential growth from there one would expect huge lunar bases and manned missions to distant planets. Instead, exploration stalled or even regressed after that. Paul Davies writes “the key point nabim exponential growth is that it never lasts”  often due to resource constraints. Theodore Modis says “nothing in nature follows a pure exponential” and suggests the logistic function is a better fit for “a real growth process”.
The logistic function looks like an exponential at first but then tapers off and flattens completely. For example, world population and the United States’s oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were logistic.
Kurzweil says “the knee in the curve” is the time when the exponential trend is going to explode, while Modis claims if the process is logistic when you hit the “knee” the quantity you are singullariteit is only going to increase by a factor of more. While some critics complain that the law of accelerating returns is not a law of nature  others question the religious motivations or implications of Kurzweil’s Singularity. The buildup towards the Singularity is compared with Singullariteit end-of-time scenarios.
Beam calls it “a Buck Rogers vision of the hypothetical Christian Rapture”. The radical nature of Kurzweil’s predictions is often discussed. Anthony Doerr says that before you “dismiss singularitrit as techno-zeal” consider that “every day the line between what is human and what is not quite human blurs a bit more”.
He lists technology of the day, inlike computers that land supersonic airplanes or in vitro fertility treatments and asks whether brain implants that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable.
The Singularity Is Near – Wikipedia
In regard to reverse engineering the brain, neuroscientist David J. Linden writes that “Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight”.
He feels that data collection might be growing exponentially, but insight is increasing only linearly. For df, the speed and cost of sequencing genomes is also improving exponentially, but our understanding of genetics is growing very slowly.
As for ee Linden believes the spaces available in the brain for navigation are simply too small. He acknowledges that someday we will fully understand the brain, just not on Kurzweil’s timetable. Paul Davies wrote in Nature that The Singularity is Near is a “breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility” while warning that the “exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt.
Anthony Doerr in The Boston Globe wrote “Kurzweil’s book is surprisingly elaborate, smart, and persuasive. He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible. She observes that he’s more focused on optimistic outcomes rather than the risks. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy directed and produced the film Transcendent Manwhich went on to bring more attention to the book.
Kurzweil has also directed his own adaptation, called The Singularity is Nearwhich mixes documentary with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona’s transformation into an artificial general intelligence. The movie was released generally on July 20, The film Lucy is roughly based upon the predictions made by Kurzweil about what the year will look like, including the immortality of man.
The Age of Spiritual Machines — The Age of Spiritual Machines is a non-fiction book by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil about artificial intelligence and the future course of humanity. First published in hardcover on January 1, by Viking, it has received attention from The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, in the book Kurzweil outlines his vision for singullariteit technology will progress during the 21st century.
Kurzweil believes evolution provides evidence that humans will one day create machines more intelligent than they are and he presents his law of accelerating returns to explain why key events happen more frequently as time marches on. It also explains why the nabkj capacity of computers is increasing exponentially, Kurzweil predicts machines with human-level intelligence will be available from affordable computing devices within a couple of decades, revolutionizing most aspects of life.
He says nanotechnology will augment our bodies and cure cancer even as humans connect to computers via direct neural interfaces or live full-time in virtual reality, Kurzweil predicts the machines will appear to have their own free will and even spiritual experiences. He says humans will live forever as humanity and its nablj become one. He predicts that intelligence will expand outward from earth until it grows powerful enough to influence the fate of the universe, reviewers appreciated Kurzweils track record with predictions, his ability to extrapolate technology trends, and his clear explanations.
However, there was disagreement on whether computers will one day be nabim, philosophers John Searle and Colin McGinn insist that computation alone cannot possibly create a conscious machine. Searle deploys a variant of his well-known Chinese room argument, this time tailored to playing chess. Searle writes that computers can only manipulate symbols which are meaningless to them, Ray Kurzweil is an inventor and serial entrepreneur.
Critics say predictions from his previous book The Age of Intelligent Machines have largely come true, after this book was published he went on to expand upon its ideas in a follow-on book The Singularity is Near. Today Ray Kurzweil works at Google where he is attempting to create a truly useful AI that will all of us smarter.
Kurzweil opens by explaining that the frequency of events has xe slowing down since the big bang while evolution has been reaching important milestones at an ever increasing pace. This is not a paradox, he writes, entropy is increasing overall, Kurzweil explains how biological evolution leads to technology which leads to computation which leads to Moores law. Kurzweil unveils several laws of his own related to this progression, as in The Age of Intelligent Machines Kurzweil argues here that evolution has an intelligence quotient just slightly greater than zero.
He says it is not higher than that because evolution operates so slowly, the law of accelerating returns predicts this singluariteit happen within decades, Kurzweil reveals. He tackles the mystery of how self-awareness and consciousness can arise from mere matter, Kurzweil defines the spiritual experience as a feeling of transcending ones everyday physical and mortal bounds to sense a deeper reality.
Kurzweil describes a series of experiments which suggest to him that the brain contains a hierarchy of pattern recognizers.
Based on this he introduces his Pattern Recognition Theory of Mind and he says the neocortex contains million very general pattern recognition circuits and argues that they are responsible for most aspects of human thought.