LE CYGNE NOIR TALEB PDF

Download Citation on ResearchGate | On Jan 1, , Armand Rioust de Largentaye and others published Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Le Cygne. Le Cygne noir has ratings and reviews. by. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Goodreads Author), (less). flag · See all 6 questions about Le Cygne noir. Le cygne noir (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). 3 likes. Book.

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Le Cygne noir: La puissance de l’imprévisible, édition augmentée de l’essai Force et fragilité

Enfim, um livro essencial, de um pensador original e com estilo bastante pessoal. Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d’esprit d’impertinence et bien souvent prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains expertset nous montre noie cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l’incertitude.

If he is right, almost all our statistical tools are obselete [or] meaningless.

He’s almost certainly right that we over-apply the “bell curve” and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events. Each of her words is weighed out as if on a spoon hanging from the edge of a cliff face l Norway.

Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. They are ideas that seem simple, but are very easy to forget or willfully ignore. Quote needing correction of typos. My library Help Advanced Book Search. But, if you have an interest in skepticism, or in randomness, then this book is definitely worth it. There’s a problem loading this menu right now. He is not unique in this, as we all have some issues regarding our past I-told-you-so’s. Trivia About The Black Swan: Easy examples are things like the invention of the transistor, or the wheel, or moveable type, or the rise of Christianity or Islam.

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Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. It is a well written book that presents brilliant ideas. Quote needing correction of typos 2 18 Aug 16, It takes considerable effort to see facts and remember them while withholding judgement and resisting explanations. It’s likely that kids today won’t even know what a phone booth was. A Black Swan is an unexpected event with a major impact. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker quantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability.

Amazon Renewed Refurbished products with a warranty. He is the owner of a large personal library containing thirty thousand booksand separates visitors into two categories: His scathing critiques on statistics and Nobel Prize winning economists are important and fundamentally correct if not polite or politically correct.

Le Cygne noir

This book finally spoke to some of the concerns I’ve had about what I’ve learned in business school. Firstly, Trump-as-president is not a Black Swan event: The social obsession with the mantra of respecting the rules of compartmentalization – you learn A so you become A nor is dead wrong and Taleb observed this It took me four relaxing afternoons to finish this book, leaving me with the disconcerting sentiment that I don’t know if I liked it or not.

Maybe he could have got his point across in half the book as written; you get the feeling he agrees with that since many of the chapters in the final half of the book have notes on them regarding the circumstances in which the reader should skip that particular chapter.

Learn more about Amazon Giveaway. Taleb explains why some of the toxic stuff is the way it is in a way that greatly increased my ability to understand and deal with it on its own terms going forward. ComiXology Thousands of Digital Comics. I’m ok with that.

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Le Cygne noir by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Apple Books

It the brain can only figure out sequence of events and the subsequent outcome. Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilites?

Lucas Carlson Because of the magnitude of disaster possible when people are wrong and unprepared for being wrong.

Contains a hell lot of names philosophers, economists, mathematicians.

His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probabilit Okay, let’s see if I got it straight I think even less. Tidak pelik melihatkan ‘mazhab’ pemikirannya. I came away with this diffuse sense talen overconfidence from Taleb This question contains spoilers… view spoiler [I could not go on after some time.

Le cygne noir : la puissance de l’imprévisible – Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Google Books

Hal ini maklum kepada pelajar statistik dalam teori regresi, korelasi, pengandaian approximation populasi dsb. Traduzir “disagree with” por “discordar COM”? I have to admit that this book was a guilty pleasure, I really enjoyed it and some of the arguments presented on it are so interesting, but in general this is an uneven book, with a lot of generalizations that come out of nowhere and not so ,e intellectual background in elaborating its main thesis.