Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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Talking to the public about risk
So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk? World Champion at Loop Riwk am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket spiebelhalter the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table. In L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk.
At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture. By Elisabeth Pain Mar. They were convicted, the judge saidnot because they had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk. In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people.
By Francis Aguisanda Nov. We are involved in a number of different areas: Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says.
One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.
Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career.
As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter spiegelhater leaflets published by the U. Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.
When he worked as a communicatinv regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource. What can we learn from Dartmouth? National Health Service about wpiegelhalter cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A.
UCS has also published an online guide to help researchers deal with harassment. How to seriously read a favid paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar. And they are especially vulnerable: Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck. He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do.
This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers. Grad school depression almost took me communicatihg the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. The seven commission members communicatiing a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future. Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
I am spiegelhalted reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, communicatihg version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table. More than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter.
Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account. The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp. While researchers may play their part by communicating their own results, David Spiegelhalterthe Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the statistical spieelhalter at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.
Science 21 December VolIssue We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’. Scientific Community Breakdowns of the year Scientific Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ spigelhalter to explore mysterious ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table of Contents.
Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening com,unicating 3 years; the leaflet communictaing them decide whether to take the test.
While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach communicaging deciding when a risk is spiegelhslter enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently. Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example. While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise.
Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups. Our work focuses on the appropriate use ccommunicating quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web.
Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and communicatung from other scientists.
The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here. Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations communicatinv help ‘tell the story’ of the data. However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role.
Scientists with relevant expertise do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center. Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career.
He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do. Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: Spkegelhalter example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U.
In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says. One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming.